Saturday, June 30, 2012

Hitting Like It's 40 Years Ago

The month of June comes to an end tonight.  We're a couple games shy of the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season.  So many times, it is easy to jump on absurd patterns halfway through a season, only to see another abnormal second half going the other way that causes things to even out.

Nonetheless, it is hard to grasp just how odd things look this year.  One of only two MLB franchises never to win a pennant holds the best record in the National League.  A 37-year old knuckleball pitcher is on pace to win the Cy Young.  Meanwhile, the league as a whole is hitting the worst it has in 40 years at a combined .254.

Four individuals are currently batting over .350 for the season.  This may not sound too odd, and to be fair, we are less than halfway through the season, but fact of the matter is the last time four individuals hit over .350 in a season was back in 2000.  Perhaps more remarkable are the players doing it, or at least the top three.

Currently, the Mets' David Wright leads the league with hitting by sporting a .361 batting average.  While Wright had a few stellar years early in his career, most know his production has dropped in recent seasons.  In fact last year he hit a mediocre .254 for the year, and his on-base percentage of the last two seasons have been lower than his current batting average (.354 and .345).

Next we have Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz who prior to this season sported a career batting average of .265.  Yet this season, he has been pretty much the only offense to show up in Philadelphia, especially as Chase Utley and Ryan Howard fought back from injuries.  Ruiz has hit 11 home runs with a stunning OPS of 1.000 for the season, a remarkable feat for a player who never hit more than 9 home runs in a full season before now.  All the while, he has posted an excellent .357 batting average.

Next we have Melky Cabrera who resides on his fourth team in as many seasons.  In Cabrera's case there was at least a sign of better things to come, even if it was small.  Cabrera was a .265 lifetime hitter following the 2010 season in Atlanta.  However, last year in Kansas City, he did eclipse .300 for the first time in his career.  Nevertheless, in his first seasons with the San Francisco Giants, he his hitting a tremendous .354 on the season while leading the league in hits with 109.

The lone other playing hitting over .350 would be former first base MVP, Joey Votto.  In fact, Votto is currently the only player in the top ten for batting average who finished in the top ten last season (10th).  This is not a category that rotates in all fresh new faces each year, so one has to wonder where the Miguel Cabrera's, Adrian Gonzalez's, Michael Young's, Jose Reyes, and Ryan Braun's of the world are.

Perhaps the more telling aspect of this is that I mentioned initially, this season is on pace to be the worst for hitting (batting average) in forty years.  The batting average across the league this year is .25388.  Despite a couple close calls in 1988 and 1989 (both years finished a hair above .254), no batting average has been worse until you go back to when the league hit a paltry .244.  It leaves for little argument to suggest that the game is still favoring hitters as it has the previous couple of decades leading to now.

It's worth noting that last season, MLB only hit .255.  2011 saw the lowest OPS and runs scored per game since 1992, and 2012 is right on the heels of 2012.  This of course could change by the end of the season, but for now it is safe to say the pattern still holds that we are headed into another small ball era.

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