Thursday, April 12, 2012

60.57

The number 60.57 has always stuck in my head as a statistic.  You might be led to believe it is the time of a race, an NBA player's points per game, or Jose Canseco's career ERA (only 27.00 actually).  In fact, it is based off a statistic that is defined by only whole numbers meaning that 60.57 simply could never happen.  The number 60.57 has slightly less significance today, but when it occurred the number 61 was one of the greatest numbers in the game of baseball.

The 1994 Major League Baseball season is among the most underrated, and sadly most forgotten seasons of baseball.  The north-of-the-border Toronto Blue Jays were two time defending World Series Champions, but the story in 1994 was Canada's other team, the Montreal Expos who had the best record in baseball.  They had only ever appeared in the playoffs once before, the 1981 strike-shortened season.  Sadly, the great 1994 team would never appear in the playoffs because baseball would not make it to the playoffs.  Lightning struck twice for the Montreal Expos, and another strike-shortened season would end anyone's chance of playing for a World Series in 1994.  Today, the Montreal Expos are the Washington Nationals, and they still have yet to reach the post season again.

While 1994 might have been a magical year for the Expos or it could have also started the New York Yankees dynasty one year earlier (who held the best record in the American League at the time), rarely do fans notice that the record books may have seen the greatest loss of all.  It wasn't as if every record in baseball was about to come crashing down, but the performances of many players that year would have been considered among the most elite in the history of the game.

When the season ended in August, San Diego Padres outfielder Tony Gwynn was batting .394 on the season.  The near mythical .400 batting average could have been in reach, but .394 by itself would have been the greatest accomplishment at the plate that anyone who is reading this would remember.  Compared with all previous records .394 would have been the 37th highest single season batting average.  Sure, 37th doesn't sound remarkable until you look at the 36 entries above that.  The last batter to hit higher than that was Ted Williams in 1941, a mere 52 years earlier.  In fact, the closest to have come since 1994 would be Nomar Garciaparra in 2000 with .372.  Still impressive, but .372 is only good for the 126th highest average of all-time.  Gwynn's .394 could well have been the greatest record of that year, but I'll leave that to personal opinion.

Numerous others were on pace to come close to records.  Young Minnesota Twin second baseman Chuck Knoblauch is most known for his troubles throwing the ball to first base, particularly an incident with the Yankees where he hit a fan who happened to be the mother of a famous poltical commentator.  That could have been changed in 1994 when Knoblauch was on pace to hit 64 doubles for the season.  No player has hit 60 or more doubles since 1936, and the single season record sits at 67.  Knoblauch's pace of 64 would have put him in a tie for second.

Others that wouldn't have broken records, but would have still been remarkable were Frank Thomas' pace of 152 runs scored, something only nine other players had done since 1900.  Jeff Bagwell was on pace for more than 163 RBIs, something no player had done since Jimmie Foxx in 1938.  Since then, Manny Ramirez has hit 165.  Also, Bagwell was slugging .750 which would have been the seventh highest of all-time behind six records held by Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, and Roger Hornsby.

Of course this was an era of hitters where pitchers are often left out, but that wasn't the case in 1994.  Greg Maddux had just come off back to back 20-win seasons, and was posting a line for the ages.  Not only was he a lock for another 20-win season, he was showing everyone up in the process.  After 25 starts, he had an incredible ERA of 1.56.  That number is considered elite when a relief pitcher gets within a half run of it today.  Maddux had thrown over 200 innings in the shortened 1994 season.  Over 25 starts, that averages out to more than 8 innings per game.  Some might try to make the argument that he would have tired, but I should point out he had thrown at least 263 innings per season for the three previous years, and never less than 237 since his first full year as a starting pitcher.  An ERA of 1.56 would not have broken any records given the plethora of pitching records from pre-World War I, but it is worth noting that only two pitchers have done better since the year 1919: Bob Gibson (1968) and Dwight Gooden (1985).  Maddux's ERA+ of 271 is the 4th greatest of all-time.

Anyway, the point of this was for the number 60.57.  After all, remarkable seasons aside, we rarely remember the guy who came in second.  Most fans know Ty Cobb holds the all-time record for batting average, but it's a minority that know Roger Hornsby is behind him.  San Francisco Giants third baseman Matt Williams hit 43 home runs in 1994.  The number 60.57 is significant because it was the number of home runs he would have totaled in a full season if he kept up his pace.  Of course home runs are not measured by fractions, so one has to wonder, if the pace continued would it have finished at 60, tying Babe Ruth for second?  Or could Williams have snuck one extra home run in there, tying him for first place with a record set 33 years earlier by Roger Maris?

Matt Williams could have been a name saved for Cooperstown.  It could have been a name used more when mentioning steroids because of the record (not that I have ever heard his name used myself).  The Barry Bonds chase of 70 home runs is not remembered nearly as well as the McGwire/Sosa chase of 61.  What would 1998 have been like if the record had been tied or broken only four years earlier?  Williams certainly continued with a great career playing with the Giants, Indians, and Diamondbacks (appearing in a World Series with each).  However, his name will rarely be muttered among the immortal baseball names of Ruth and Maris.

The 1994 baseball season is remember for being shortened by a strike, the numbers .394, 1.56, and 60.57 should remind us of what could have been.

2 comments:

  1. Great post Tyler! I'll never forget the 1994 Expos. Such a shame they were robbed of a dream season. I remember the performances by Gwynn and Maddux, and Williams, but forgot about Knoblauch's doubles pace. Actually, I don't think I was ever even aware Knoblauch was on pace for over 60 doubles.

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    1. Thanks Reece! Really glad to have a baseball fan reading. The Gwynn and Williams performances I remember well. Knoblauch I remember stumbling across only a few years ago when looking at the records. Oddly, I forget just how good Maddux was that season. Maybe it's because he always seemed that good, or just because I try to block out the Atlanta Braves as best I can.

      Never know how these things play out though. Maybe Cal Ripken gets hurt in September of 1994, and the Ironman record is never broken.

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