Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Franchise Quarterbacks: Part II

A few days ago, I did a post about the 1999 NFL draft being the last draft where quarterbacks were drafted with the first three picks.  While this season, it appears only as an outside chance that three quarterbacks could go first, it is all but a lock that the first two picks will be.  Since Peyton Manning was drafted first overall by the Indianapolis Colts in 1998, 11 of the 14 first overall picks in the draft have been quarterbacks.  The picks are always still gambles.  Just asked the Cleveland Browns about Tim Couch (#1 overall) versus Tom Brady of the Patriots (#199 overall).  So why gamble on such a volatile position?  Because the stability of that position seems to trickle down to the rest of the team.

Over the last ten years, the average number of starting quarterbacks per NFL team is a staggering 8.25 with a total of 264 starting quarterbacks over that time.  That's remarkably close to have a new starter every single year.  Of course, some franchise lead the way by far.  The Miami Dolphins who I've routed for since I was a child because of Dan Marino have the pole position of 15 starters since 2002 including Jay Fiedler, Joey Harrington, Damon Huard, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Cleo Lemon, Chad Henne, Gus Frerotte, Matt Moore, John Beck, Sage Rosenfels, Ray Lucas, Brian Griese, A.J. Feely, Trent Green, and Tyler Thigpen.  It's worth noting that will in all likelihood try to draft a quarterback with their first overall pick this year and immediately make him starter #16.  Note the teams with the most below:

Starting QBs Since 2002:
1.  Miami Dolphins - 15
2T.  Chicago Bears - 14
2T.  Oakland Raiders - 14
2T.  St. Louis Rams - 14
5.  Cleveland Browns - 13

Those five franchises have combined for a total of two playoff appearances in the last five seasons (Dolphins and Bears).  Compare that number to the teams with more stability at the position, and the least number of starters over the last ten years:

1.  New England Patriots - 2
2T.  Green Bay Packers - 3
2T.  San Diego Chargers - 3
4T.  Indianapolis Colts - 4*
4T.  New Orleans Saints - 4
4T.  New York Giants - 4

*Note for Indianapolis three of those starters came in 2011 only.

Those six franchises have combined for 21 playoff appearances in the last five years.  In fact, there are only three franchises not on that list who have started less than 7 QBs over the last ten years:  Bengals, Seahawks, and Steelers.

I decided to look at teams that stuck with the same quarterback for many years in an effort to define a franchise quarterback.  My standard was merely that they started half of their teams games in the last ten years (80 games since 2002).  This is where the numbers truly tell the story of why you need stability at the position to win.  A total of 13 teams had a QB start 80 or more games for them in that time:

1.  New York Giants
2.  Green Bay Packers
3.  New Orleans Saints
4.  Pittsburgh Steelers
5.  Indianapolis Colts
6.  New England Patriots
7.  San Diego Chargers
8.  Seattle Seahawks
9.  St. Louis Rams
10.  Philadelphia Eagles
11.  Carolina Panthers
12.  Cincinnati Bengals
13.  Denver Broncos

Two noteworthy things about that list.  First, the St. Louis Rams show up on that list for Marc Bulger who started 95 games for the team despite that the Rams tied for second on an above list for the most starting QBs since 2002 with 14.  Bulger was generally sidelined with injuries due to an offensive line that looked like it belonged at the FCS level.

However, the most noteworthy part of this is when you compare the list to recent Super Bowl winners:


1.  New York Giants  (2011, 2007)
2.  Green Bay Packers  (2010)
3.  New Orleans Saints  (2009)
4.  Pittsburgh Steelers  (2008, 2005)
5.  Indianapolis Colts  (2006)
6.  New England Patriots  (2004, 2003)
7.  San Diego Chargers
8.  Seattle Seahawks
9.  St. Louis Rams
10.  Philadelphia Eagles
11.  Carolina Panthers
12.  Cincinnati Bengals
13.  Denver Broncos

The last nine Super Bowl champions have all belonged to this list of having a "franchise" quarterback.  We can even go one step further and point out that three more teams on that list won NFC Titles, and made it to the Super Bowl (Seahawks, Eagles, and Panthers).  This is why it is worth finding that Quarterback who can lead your team on a consistent basis.

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