Sunday, April 22, 2012

E1

E1 is usually an error committed by the pitcher.  In this case, it was an error committed towards a pitcher.

Consider these five pitching lines:
A.  19-8, 3.24 ERA, 308 Ks, 1.112 WHIP, 137 ERA+
B.  2-3, 45 Saves, 2.13 ERA, 97 Ks, 1.033 WHIP, 204 ERA+
C.  18-8, 2.56 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.106 WHIP, 179 ERA+
D.  22-10, 3.37 ERA, 158 Ks,1.286 WHIP, 125 ERA+
E.  18-6, 3.00 ERA, 173 Ks, 1.107 ERA, 139 ERA+

Which one is the best?  Of the four starting pitchers there, who would you want on the mound for your team for Game 7?  These five lines belong to the top five finishers in the American League Cy Young voting in 1993.  Would any of you have picked Letter D as the best of the bunch?

This leads to the question.  Who did Jack McDowell pay off in 1993?  It was McDowell, then with the Chicago White Sox who won the award in 1993, a year after finishing runner up.  Yet when you look at the numbers, it seems painfully obvious the best line did not belong to him.  For the record, the other pitchers are Randy Johnson (A), Duane Ward (B), Kevin Appier (C), and Jimmy Key (E).

It isn't that McDowell had a bad season.  It was pretty good for the American League in 1993.  It didn't come close to his National League counterpart Greg Maddux.  However, it didn't really compare all that well with his American League constituents either.  McDowell won 22 games that season, being the only pitcher to crack 20 in the AL.  The National League had four players crack 20 (all Braves and Giants).  However, we know better than to define a pitcher by wins alone.  Never mind that in the old days of two division baseball, the White Sox were one of only two AL West teams that were above average in runs scored (Texas being the other), and it doesn't hurt when MVP Frank Thomas plays for the team.

McDowell had an ERA of 3.37, certainly good, but far from stellar.  The four other players mentioned all had lower ERAs.  In fact, only Johnson had an ERA over 3.00 (3.24).  Johnson, Appier, and Key all won 18 or more games, and played on lesser teams.  Meanwhile, Ward was closing for the World Series bound Toronto Blue Jays at a clip Mariano Rivera would appreciate.

Flashy statistics like strikeouts clearly didn't play a role since the three aforementioned starters all had more, and Ward had 97 of his own compared to McDowell's 158.  Consider that McDowell pitched 256.2 innings to Randy Johnson's 255.1, yet McDowell allowed 46 additional base runners.

Fact of the matter is, it wasn't well deserved.  McDowell served as the ace of a team that won it's division that year, and seems to have won the award based on the 22 wins alone.  Let's forget the Randy Johnsons and Kevin Appiers of the 1993 season.  Let's look at the Chicago White Sox.  McDowell led a staff with Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez, and rookie Jason Bere.  Diving a little closer into their numbers, and you begin to question if McDowell was even the ace of the staff more or less a Cy Young winner.

A. Fernandez:  18-9, 3.13 ERA, 169 Ks, 1.164 WHIP, 135 ERA+
W. Alvarez:  15-8, 2.95 ERA, 155 Ks, 1.396 WHIP, 143 ERA+
J. Bere:  12-5, 3.47 ERA, 129 Ks, 1.332 WHIP, 122 ERA+

It seems quite obvious to myself that Fernandez had all around better numbers in each category.  Alvarez in all categories, but WHIP.  Maybe he had a little luck, but overall he was effective.  Bere was merely a rookie in 1993, and finished second in the Rookie of the Year voting behind a 31 HR Tim Salmon of the Angels while only making 24 starts.  Really, Bere is the only guy I could say McDowell finished ahead of, but had Bere made 34 starts like McDowell, he probably would beat him out in my book as well.  Alvarez and Fernandez finished in the top four for the AL in terms of ERA.  McDowell doesn't even cut the top ten. 

If had been a member of the BBWAA in 1993, and cast a vote, it would have been Kevin Appier hands down.  While I would at least listen to arguments for Johnson, Key, and especially Ward, Appier's numbers are untouchable.  A 2.56 ERA is 0.39 less than the next lowest.  His WHIP was second lowest in the AL to Danny Darwin, and his HR per 9 IP were far less than everyone else.  Meanwhile, Appier pitched for the Kansas City Royals who were 24th out of 26 when it came to runs scored in 1993, behind a 103 loss Mets team and the expansion Florida Marlins.  The highlight of their lineup was catcher Mike Macfarlane who let the team with 20 HRs.  No Frank Thomas or Robin Ventura here.

Now, I never have had any issue with Jack McDowell before, and honestly, for most of what is written above I didn't either.  However, before I went to publish this post, I had to at least do an internet search or two.  I just wanted to make sure I wasn't missing some critical piece of information as to why he won, or maybe some scandal where BBWAA writers were paid in cash to get him the award.  I found no such evidence.  I found something far worse.

I can now say I have quite a bit of disdain for Jack McDowell due to a blog he has been doing the past few years for the White Sox:


That particular post was written following the 2009 season, and the announcement of Cy Young winners Tim Lincecum and Zack Greinke.  He says he is "fine" with those two picks, but is concerned that the award is not necessarily going to the pitchers with the most wins, and is instead going to those that have "stuff".  "Stuff" is clearly implied to be strikeouts in this case as he immediately throws pitcher Javier Vazquez under the bus.  Vazquez won "only" 15 games in 2009, and therefore is far inferior than a pitcher who won 22.

"Now that they have officially allowed full season 15 game winners to represent the best in the game, you start to worry about perennial low ERA, high strikeout guys like Vasquez being propelled to the highest level of respect...when they shouldn't.  What is the difference how many strikeouts a guy has if they can't ultimately win games?"

"I'm definitely not swaying fully to the wins total leader taking all the prizes, but that is the thing starting pitchers get paid for."

Apparently all you need to do to win McDowell's vote of confidence as a Cy Young winner is play in front of a line that can score, and collect the wins that follow.  It baffles me that a former Major League pitcher can come to the conclusion that his 22 wins were his doing an not a team effort.  Awarding pitchers for wins and losses is one of the more arrogant aspects of the game.  We don't award a win to a hitter because he hits a game winning home run.  We award him a home run and some points to his batting average.  Why?  Because that is what he gets paid for, and that is how he helps his team earn wins.
A starting pitcher?  His job isn't to win games at all.  He is the number one person when it comes to defense, and his sole job is to prevent the other team from scoring, and thus prevent them from winning.  A pitcher doesn't win games until he picks up a bat, something McDowell never did once in his Major League career.  McDowell had a very solid season, and played a large role in helping the White Sox win games and ultimately a division title.  Last I checked, there were a couple dozen other guys on that team who did much the same, including the 1993 AL MVP.

Anyway, enough of the soapbox for now.  Here is to Kevin Appier, the true winner of the 1993 Cy Young Award.  A player who earned wins to his name despite the team around him, and not because of a high-powered offense of which he played no role.

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