While some have made the argument for Heisman Trophy winner Robert Griffin III, no one would bet their next paycheck on it knowing full well that Andrew Luck has been deemed a franchise QB. With the Colts all but having locked him up, the Washington Redskins felt their 6th overall selection in the draft was not enough security to land a quarterback of their own. So in early March, they traded their 6th overall draft pick as well as first round picks in the following two drafts and another second round pick to move up a mere four spots in the draft, giving them now the 2nd overall choice next week. The Redskins, desperate for a quarterback of their own will most certainly choose Robert Griffin III assuming the Colts don't change their mind at the last minute.
These two picks are presumed by nearly everyone who has some thought, opinion, or interest in the NFL draft. Both franchises have basically admitted to it at this point, and no one should expect anything less. Despite that 11 of the last 14 number overall picks have been quarterbacks, you still have to go back ten full years to find the last time that two quarterbacks went in the first three overall picks. In 2002, the expansion team Houston Texans selected David Carr first overall, and two picks later the Detroit Lions would select Joey Harrington.
While Luck and Griffin III are considered locks at this point for the first two, there has been some speculation that yet another quarterback could find his way to the third overall pick. Right now this pick is occupied by the Minnesota Vikings who have a young QB by the name of Christian Ponder, and the best overall player not named Luck or Griffin is generally considered to be Matt Kahil, an offensive tackle from USC. The Vikings need him as much as they don't need another quarterback, and are nearly guaranteed to take him barring a trade.
However, given that a number of teams are stumbling to find a franchise quarterback, and Ryan Tannehill of Texas A&M continues to impress, some speculate that a team could trade up to get him. The Cleveland Browns could take a chance on him with the next pick, but having a young Colt McCoy likely means they will go elsewhere. Barring another trade, he would likely fall to eighth overall where my Miami Dolphins would be forced to take him.
If a team were to trade up to third, and select Tannehll, it would be the first time since the 1999 NFL draft that quarterbacks were drafted with the first three picks overall. Of course, of those three picks, only one found success. The Cleveland Browns selected first with Tim Couch who hung in as the Browns starting QB for five seasons before bouncing between other teams and never seeing the field again. The Philadelphia Eagles selected Donovan McNabb who became the face of the franchise for years until recently, leading them to numerous NFC Championship games, and one Super Bowl, but no victory. Third overall was infamous draft bust Aliki Smith of the Cincinnati Bengals. He would appear in only 22 games, and threw a mere 5 touchdown passes before flaming out.
It leads to the question if trading to a third pick would be worth it for any team, and for that matter, was it worth it for the Redskins to trade up just to secure Griffin? The NFL draft is full of luck, and studies have shown that. However, it's worth noting that after those initial three picks in 1999, seven of the next eight picks ended up being Pro Bowl players with Edgerrin James, Ricky Williams, Torry Holt, Champ Bailey, David Boston, Chris McAlister, and the fourth quarterback of the draft, Daunte Culpepper. Just something to think about.
On a side note, the number five overall pick of Ricky Williams came by the New Orleans Saints who traded all of their other picks to the Washington Redskins for him. It was the first time a team had only one pick in the draft.
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